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作者：马纯来源：原创发布日期：08-24

环太平洋

达利欧：美国3年内或现债务危机，建议配置黄金降低投资风险_我的网站

蓝精灵

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Photo: Global Times
Editor's Note:

Ahead of the opening of the 2026 World AI Conference and High-Level Meeting on Global AI Governance, Chinese AI start-up Moonshot AI released its Kimi K3 large language model. As the world's largest open-source model by parameter count to date, this launch marks a significant step forward in the development of China's artificial intelligence models.
From the C919 airliner soaring into the skies to Unitree's humanoid robots stealing the show; from DeepSeek pushing the AI frontier to Moonshot AI's landmark unveiling of Kimi K3 - China's wave of homegrown innovations has dominated global headlines in recent years, delivering a steady stream of breakthroughs.
At a meeting in Beijing that brought together the national science and technology award conference, the general assemblies of the members of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) and the Chinese Academy of Engineering (CAE), and the 11th national congress of the China Association for Science and Technology in July, Chinese President Xi Jinping, also general secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee and chairman of the Central Military Commission, stressed that the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030) is a critical phase for tackling tough challenges in building up the country's strength in science and technology.
"We must seize the historic opportunity, rise to the challenges of the times, accelerate efforts to achieve high-level self-reliance and strength in science and technology, and make steady progress toward the 2035 goal of becoming a leading country in science and technology," he said.
In the article "Strive for Greater Strength and Self-Reliance in Science and Technology" included in the fourth volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China, Xi pointed out, "Through years of endeavor, our country's overall strength in science and technology has improved substantially. We therefore have a solid foundation, and are fully confident in our ability to seize the opportunities offered by the new revolution in science, technology and industry to achieve greater results." The article also mentioned that "We should participate to the full in global science and technology governance, contribute Chinese wisdom, and shape a philosophy of technology for good purposes, so that science and technology better serve human wellbeing, and enable China's science and technology industry to contribute more to building a global community of shared future."
In the 27th installment of the special series "Decoding the Book Xi Jinping: The Governance of China," the Global Times, along with the People's Daily Overseas Edition, continues to invite Chinese and foreign scholars, translators of Xi's works, practitioners with firsthand experience, and international readers to focus on the theme of striving for greater strength and self-reliance in science and technology. Together, they share views on China's tech growth, governance principles, and global cooperation in science and technology.
Here are the stories:
1. Readers’ Reflections: China’s innovation success is real global news, landing in the living rooms of Italian retirees who barely use a smartphone: Italian scientist
2. Practitioners' Insights: How did a decade of dedicated effort build China a self-reliant 'digital track'?
3. Translators’ Voices: China's pursuit of strength and self-reliance in science and technology presents an inspiring path
4. Scholars’ Perspectives: National support, optimized evaluation allow young talent to pursue long-term breakthroughs: researcher
Photo: Global Times

Photo: Global Times
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澎湃新闻记者孙铭蔚桥水基金创始人瑞·达利欧（Ray Dalio）最新观点认为，美国三年内或将迎来债务危机。

B | 当地时间8月21日，达利欧在其个人网站发表题为《国家如何走向破产：当下变局背后的内在逻辑》（How Countries Go Broke: The Dynamic Behind What is Happening Now）的文章。他指出，美国财政部长贝森特本周宣布的债务回购计划，或预示危机临近。达利欧称，美国政府今年的总收入大概是5.5万亿美元，而总支出约为7.5万亿美元，预算缺口达到约两万亿美元。

C | 同时由于美国政府长期靠借债度日，目前的债务余额已经达到约32万亿美元（注：不计入政府间债务），相当于年收入的6倍，这些债务每年的利息超过1万亿美元。“我确信，美国政府的财政状况正处于一个转折点。

D | ”达利欧写道，如果现在不加以解决，债务将会累积到难以承受的地步，造成巨大的经济创伤。

E | 尤其重要的是，这项行动必须在经济体系相对稳健的时候进行，而不是在经济疲软的时候。在达利欧看来，美国债务问题正在从一个长期存在的结构性风险，逐渐转变为一个需要政策当局正面处理的现实问题。达利欧预测，如果美国不想办法改变现状，债务危机“可能在三年内爆发，上下浮动两年左右”。达利欧进一步指出，要延迟甚至解决债务问题，美国需要“三管齐下”，通过削减开支、增加税收以及降低利率等措施，将目前的预算赤字从约6%降至国内生产总值的3%。“三者需同时进行，以防任何一项幅度过大，”达利欧表示，否则，过度削减支出、过度增加税收或人为压低利率，都可能带来严重的经济冲击。鉴于眼下并非只有美国面临债务问题，达利欧预计大多数经济体都会经历类似的债务和货币贬值调整过程， “这也是为什么我预计黄金和比特币等非政府发行的货币会表现相对较好。